"Jammu & Kashmir Faces 79% Rainfall Deficit: Experts Warn of Summer Changes

Jammu and Kashmir Faces Prolonged Dry Spell: Risks Grow for Agriculture, Water Supply, and Forest Fires

Srinagar: A significant rainfall deficit in Jammu and Kashmir has caused an extended dry spell in the region, raising alarm over the growing risk of forest fires, falling water levels, and potential disruptions to agriculture and power generation in the coming months.

Local authorities have warned that the situation could worsen as the region has seen minimal precipitation since the start of the year.

Record Rainfall Deficit

Recent data shows that the Union Territory has faced an alarming 79% rainfall shortfall from January 1 to February 12, receiving only 29.8 mm of rain against the expected 140 mm. The districts of Jammu and Udhampur reported deficits of 94% and 92%, respectively, while Kathua, the hardest-hit district, experienced a staggering 97% deficit.

Srinagar, the region's summer capital, saw an 82% deficit, while other districts like Shopian, Reasi, Ramban, Kulgam, Doda, Budgam, and Anantnag experienced deficits ranging from 80% to 89%. Even areas like Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar, and Ganderbal, which saw less severe shortfalls, reported deficits between 60% and 69%.

Rising Forest Fire Risks

The ongoing dry spell has contributed to a surge in forest fires. Over two dozen incidents have been recorded in the past two months, with regions like Tral, Udhampur, Reasi, and Poonch seeing the most activity. Experts link the rise in fires to the lack of rainfall and strong winds, which have created the perfect conditions for wildfires.

“Even a small spark could result in a major wildfire,” warned Suresh Kumar Gupta, Principal Chief Conservator of Forests. “We are closely monitoring the situation and have deployed fire-fighting teams.”

Experts also point to climate change as a growing concern, with shifting weather patterns making Kashmir’s forests more vulnerable to fire outbreaks.

Water Crisis Deepens

In addition to the forest fire threat, the region is grappling with a growing water crisis. Major rivers and streams, including the Jhelum, have fallen to dangerously low levels. The water level at Sangam is -1.01 feet below the Reduced Level (RL), and other key locations like Ram Munshi Bagh and Asham have seen their water levels drop significantly.

The lack of adequate snowfall, which traditionally replenishes water sources, has been identified as the primary cause of the low water levels. Other tributaries, including Lidder, Rambiyara, Ferozpora, and Pohru, are also flowing below normal levels.

Hydropower Generation Affected

The water shortage is having a direct impact on hydropower generation. Hydroelectric output in the region has dropped by 84%, with the Power Development Department (PDD) producing just 190 MW in recent weeks, down from 250 MW in January. The region's total hydropower capacity of 1,200 MW, including 900 MW from the Baglihar Hydroelectric Project, is operating well below its potential due to the reduced water supply.

“We’re facing challenges in optimizing power generation due to dwindling water availability,” said a senior PDD official. “Rising temperatures and shorter snowfalls are making the situation unpredictable.”

Impact on Agriculture

The ongoing dryness also threatens agriculture, particularly fruit farming. Experts warn that apple orchards, the backbone of Kashmir’s horticulture industry, are at risk as early blooming due to warm temperatures and lack of moisture could disrupt pollination, leading to reduced yields.

“If the dryness persists beyond February 20, it could lead to early flowering, which, combined with erratic weather, could severely impact fruit production,” said Dr. Parvez, a scientist at SKUAST-Kashmir.

Dr. Tariq, another expert, pointed out that while warm weather can reduce fungal diseases, it also makes trees more vulnerable to insect infestations and sunburn. “Farmers should focus on maintaining soil moisture and using mulching techniques to minimize the risks,” he advised.

Wildlife and Wetlands Unaffected... For Now

Despite the worsening water shortage, Kashmir’s wetlands remain stable, ensuring that migratory birds and wildlife continue to thrive. “There is sufficient water in key wetlands like Hokersar and Shallabugh, although there are minor concerns in Mirgund,” said an official overseeing wetland management.

Wildlife in the Dachigam National Park also appears unaffected by the drought, as animals can access water from higher elevations. “The snow in areas like Gulmarg, Sonamarg, and Baltal is providing adequate water for the region's wildlife,” a senior wildlife official confirmed.

Sports Events Postponed

Due to inadequate snowfall, the fifth edition of the Khelo India Winter Games (KIWG), scheduled for February 22-25, 2025, in Gulmarg, has been postponed. The lack of sufficient snow on the ski slopes of Affarwat prompted the delay. A fresh assessment will be conducted after February 19, with the potential for fresh snowfall bringing some respite.

Weather Forecast Offers Hope

The Meteorological Department has forecast a brief respite from the dry spell, with a Western Disturbance expected to bring rain and snow to Jammu and Kashmir between February 19 and 20. Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the MeT Department, indicated that light to moderate rainfall could reach the plains of Kashmir and Jammu, while areas like Chenab Valley and South Kashmir may experience up to 10 inches of snowfall.

While this will offer temporary relief, the long-term outlook remains uncertain as the region grapples with the effects of climate change.