India’s Big Trade Move with Taliban: Why Exports Are Declining

India-Afghanistan Trade Relations: A Shifting Dynamic

Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, there were widespread concerns that diplomatic and trade relations between India and Afghanistan would deteriorate. Many believed that India would refuse to engage with the Taliban-led government, disrupting economic ties. However, recent trade trends have painted a different picture.

Evolving Trade Patterns

Over the past few years, trade relations between India and Afghanistan have undergone a notable transformation. India’s exports to Afghanistan have significantly decreased, while imports from Afghanistan have surged. In the 2023-24 period, India imported goods worth an impressive $642.29 million from Afghanistan, even as its exports to the country fell to their lowest levels in 16 years.

Key Trade Figures

Trade statistics highlight a major shift in India-Afghanistan commerce since 2021. India’s exports to Afghanistan have steadily declined from $825.78 million in 2020-21 to just $355.45 million in 2023-24. In contrast, Afghan exports to India have grown substantially, rising from $509.49 million in 2020-21 to a record $642.29 million in 2023-24. This shift indicates a changing trade balance, as reported by the Commerce Ministry.

Drivers of Increased Afghan Exports to India

India’s growing imports from Afghanistan are primarily driven by agricultural and specialty goods. Key commodities include apples, figs, asafoetida, raisins, garlic, saffron, fennel seeds, almonds, apricots, onions, pomegranates, and walnuts. These products have seen record import volumes, reflecting strong demand in the Indian market.

Challenges Faced by Afghan Migrants in Pakistan

In a related development, thousands of Afghan migrants residing in Pakistan have voiced concerns over increasing repressive actions by law enforcement in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Reports from Afghan media highlight the plight of many refugees, including women and children, facing arrests and forced deportations by Pakistani authorities.

Many of these migrants have been seeking asylum in third countries, but delays in processing their applications have exacerbated their difficulties. For decades, Afghan refugees have taken shelter in Pakistan, fleeing conflict and instability in their homeland. However, recent crackdowns have intensified their struggles, drawing widespread criticism.